Trong bu\u1ed5i h\u1ecdp b\u00e1o t\u1ea1i Rose Garden nh\u00e2n chuy\u1ebfn vi\u1ebfng th\u0103m Hoa K\u1ef3 ng\u00e0y 25 th\u00e1ng 9, 2015, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Trung C\u1ed9ng T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u \u201cHo\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng li\u00ean h\u1ec7 m\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u1edf qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Nam Sa [Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa] kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau hay t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 h\u00f3a.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong l\u00fac T\u1eadp m\u1eb7t d\u00e0y n\u00f3i d\u1ed1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 h\u00f3a Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng g\u1ea7n ho\u00e0n t\u1ea5t. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1eeb 2013, Trung C\u1ed9ng (TC) l\u1ee3i d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i ch\u1ee7 h\u00f2a c\u1ee7a TT Barack Obama \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng b\u1ea3y \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c b\u00e3i \u0111\u00e1 h\u1ecd chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u1edbi \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh bi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c n\u01a1i n\u00e0y th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb v\u1edbi phi c\u01a1 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u, oanh t\u1ea1c c\u01a1, kho \u0111\u1ea1n d\u01b0\u1ee3c, c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ec7nh danh l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u201ch\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng m\u1eabu h\u1ea1m kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ch\u00ecm\u201d (unsinkable aircraft carriers). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lo ng\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, T\u1eadp ch\u1ec9 th\u1ecb ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch g\u1ea5p r\u00fat. \u0110\u1ec3 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y nhanh ch\u00f3ng, TC \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n v\u1ed1n c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. Nh\u00e0 h\u1ea3i d\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ecdc John McManus thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Miami t\u1ed1 c\u00e1o: \u201cm\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u0103n b\u1ea3n, TC t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 s\u1ed1ng chung quanh c\u00e1c r\u1ea1n san h\u00f4.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea3y \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00f3 g\u1ed3m Johnson Reef South (\u0110\u00e1 G\u1ea1c Ma), Subi Reef (\u0110\u00e1 Xu Bi), Gaven Reef (\u0110\u00e1 Ga Ven), Hughes Reef (\u0110\u00e1 T\u01b0 Ngh\u0129a), Fiery Cross Reef (\u0110\u00e1 Ch\u1eef Th\u1eadp), Cuarteron Reef (\u0110\u00e1 Ch\u00e2u Vi\u00ean) v\u00e0 Mischief Reef (\u0110\u00e1 V\u00e0nh Kh\u0103n).
Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 b\u00e3i \u0111\u00e1 n\u00eau tr\u00ean thu\u1ed9c qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c g\u1ed3m Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan v\u00e0 Trung C\u1ed9ng c\u0169ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong s\u1ed1 b\u1ea3y \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o, ba \u0111\u1ea3o quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y tr\u00ean c\u00e1c b\u00e3i \u0111\u00e1 Ch\u1eef Th\u1eadp (Fiery Cross), Xu Bi (Subi) v\u00e0 \u0110\u00e1 V\u00e0nh Kh\u0103n (Mischief). Ba \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o ch\u00ed qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cBig Three\u201d (Ba \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o l\u1edbn).
Ri\u00eang t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00e1 Ch\u1eef Th\u1eadp, phi \u0111\u1ea1o d\u00e0i m\u01b0\u1eddi ng\u00e0n b\u1ed9 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1p b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 lo\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u c\u01a1 v\u00e0 oanh t\u1ea1c c\u01a1 n\u00e0o c\u1ee7a TC. C\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a TC tr\u00ean hai qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa v\u00e0 Ho\u00e0ng Sa c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c v\u00f5 kh\u00ed t\u1ed1i t\u00e2n. C\u00e1c h\u1ecfa ti\u1ec5n \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng (SAM) HQ-9 c\u00f3 t\u1ea7m trung b\u00ecnh 200 km, c\u00e1c gi\u00e0n Radar v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u c\u01a1 J-11 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ea3o Ph\u00fa L\u00e2m (Woody) thu\u1ed9c Ho\u00e0ng Sa t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2016. H\u00f4m nay, ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn ch\u00fang c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb tr\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n t\u1ea5t.

M\u1ee4C \u0110\u00cdCH X\u00c2Y D\u1ef0NG C\u00c1C \u0110\u1ea2O NH\u00c2N T\u1ea0O
T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh x\u00e2y \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o hai m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch: (1) v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t \u201ct\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u0111ang hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu\u201d (status quo) v\u00e0 (2) v\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 nh\u1eb1m d\u1ef1ng hai ph\u00f2ng tuy\u1ebfn m\u1eb7t \u0111\u00f4ng nam Trung Qu\u1ed1c.

Nh\u01b0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi vi\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch trong c\u00e1c b\u00e0i tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u201cStatus quo\u201d \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn hay tranh lu\u1eadn c\u00e1c b\u00ean th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4i khi c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem \u0111\u00f3 nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n m\u00e0 n\u1ebfu b\u1ecb v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o n\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc. Khi x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o, h\u1ecd T\u1eadp ngh\u0129 trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u1ec7 h\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3i ng\u1ed3i v\u00e0o b\u00e0n th\u01b0\u01a1ng thuy\u1ebft, y s\u1ebd d\u00f9ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n.

V\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c c\u1eafm c\u1ecdc tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng.

T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng, trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u1ec7 h\u1ea1i c\u00e1c tranh ch\u1ea5p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf ph\u1ea3i d\u1eabn t\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb, c\u00e1c c\u1ecdc tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Trung C\u1ed9ng. B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t tham lam v\u00e0 nh\u1ecf nhen c\u1ee7a Trung C\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i d\u00f9 ch\u1ec9 v\u00e0i m\u00e9t nh\u01b0 trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng xe l\u1eeda ph\u00eda b\u1eafc Vi\u1ec7t Nam tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y hay v\u00e0i ng\u00e0n d\u1eb7m nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng ng\u00e0y nay. T\u1eadp mu\u1ed1n \u0111\u1eb7t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1edbc chuy\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 r\u1ed3i.

C\u00e1ch suy ngh\u0129 c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp r\u1ea5t x\u01b0a v\u00e0 l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 Nh\u1ea5t, ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb Geneva Convention I k\u00fd k\u1ebft n\u0103m 1863, c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00fd k\u1ebft gi\u1eefa hai qu\u1ed1c gia hay hai nh\u00f3m qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1eb1m t\u1ea1o c\u00e1c li\u00ean minh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. Nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n thay \u0111\u1ed5i. H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng \u01b0\u1edbc qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u1ec1 x\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nguy\u00ean t\u1eed, kinh t\u1ebf, m\u1eadu d\u1ecbch, m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec1u di\u1ec5n ra sau Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 Hai v\u1edbi n\u1ed9i dung v\u00e0 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c.

Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ng\u00e0y nay ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1edfi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng \u01b0\u1edbc, hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f2n b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi hi\u1ebfn ch\u01b0\u01a1ng Li\u00ean Hi\u1ec7p Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 an ninh qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u1ea3 kinh t\u1ebf, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. Vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecb tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u00ec b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 l\u00fd do g\u00ec c\u0169ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eadn g\u1ed1c \u0111\u1eddi s\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Nam Phi v\u00e0 Lybia \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1990 hay Iran, B\u1eafc H\u00e0n hi\u1ec7n nay.

Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a TC sau v\u1ee5 Philippines ki\u1ec7n TC cho th\u1ea5y m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft do T\u00f2a Tr\u1ecdng T\u00e0i Th\u01b0\u1eddng Tr\u1ef1c (The Hague) c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, Trung C\u1ed9ng trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn Philippines th\u1eafng ki\u1ec7n.

V\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh khi d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 nh\u1eb1m t\u1ea1o hai ph\u00f2ng tuy\u1ebfn b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 s\u01b0\u1eddn \u0111\u00f4ng nam c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c.

M\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t ra ph\u1ea3i ch\u0103ng c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a TC tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 \u0111e d\u1ecda v\u1ec1 an ninh qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9?

C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi chung c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean vi\u00ean qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 \u0111a s\u1ed1 nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea3o \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb v\u00f4 hi\u1ec7u h\u00f3a nhanh ch\u00f3ng.

V\u00f4 hi\u1ec7u qu\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o?

B\u1eb1ng hai c\u00e1ch, (1) \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u00ecm xu\u1ed1ng Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng hay (2) b\u1ecf qua v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c “\u1ebech nh\u1ea3y” (Leapfrogging) nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 Hai.

Rand Corporation<\/em>, m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 t\u1ea7m v\u00f3c th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi trong t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng phu d\u00e0y 430 trang v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 M\u1ef9-TC (The U.S.-China military scorecard: forces, geography, and the evolving balance of power, 1996-2017<\/em>) cho r\u1eb1ng \u201cnh\u1eefng c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 trang b\u1ecb m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 SAM v\u00e0 phi c\u01a1 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 g\u00ec \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee5ng ch\u1ea1m qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u1edbi c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 cao ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 l\u00e2u h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t gi\u1edd.\u201d

Theo Rand, l\u1ecbch s\u1eed chi\u1ebfn tranh cho th\u1ea5y SAM ch\u1ec9 h\u1eefu hi\u1ec7u khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c che gi\u1ea5u, nh\u01b0ng trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o gi\u1eefa Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, SAM kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 n\u01a1i n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea5u.

C\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1ng \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o l\u00e0 c\u0103n c\u1ee9 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 cho d\u00f9 ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 d\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c n\u00e0o c\u0169ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ea3i v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng l\u1ef1c M\u1ef9.

Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i \u0111\u00f3 qu\u00e1 hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee3i ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 chuy\u00ean gia qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 m\u1edbi nh\u1eadn ra v\u00e0 d\u0129 nhi\u00ean TC c\u0169ng bi\u1ebft. Nh\u01b0ng t\u1ea1i sao h\u1ecd v\u1eabn x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng?
TC tin r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng phi c\u01a1 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u v\u00e0 h\u1ecfa ti\u1ec5n t\u1ea7m 200 km \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f4 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf \u0111ang tranh ch\u1ea5p v\u1edbi TC v\u00e0 \u201cBig Three\u201d (Ch\u1eef Th\u1eadp, Xu Bi v\u00e0 V\u00e0nh Kh\u0103n) s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i h\u00f3a v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng di \u0111\u1ed9ng cao \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 t\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3n c\u00f4ng.
Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb b\u1ecf qua n\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201c\u1ebech nh\u1ea3y\u201d (Leapfrogging) nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 d\u00f9ng trong m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng trong Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 Hai.

Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201c\u1ebech nh\u1ea3y\u201d l\u00e0 g\u00ec?

\u201c\u1ebech nh\u1ea3y\u201d hay g\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ee7 c\u00e2u l\u00e0 \u201c\u1ebech nh\u1ea3y t\u1edbi Tokyo\u201d l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt.

Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n ngo\u00e0i 5 \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh Hokkaido, Honshu, Shikoku, Kyushu, v\u00e0 Okinawa, c\u00f2n c\u00f3 430 \u0111\u1ea3o d\u00e2n c\u01b0 ng\u1ee5 trong t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng 6,852 \u0111\u1ea3o t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh qu\u1ed1c gia qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Nh\u1eadt. \u0110\u1ea3o l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 Honshu v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh n\u01a1i c\u00f3 th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f4 Tokyo.

Ng\u00e0y 30 th\u00e1ng 3, 1942, \u0110\u00f4 \u0110\u1ed1c Chester Nimitz \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 b\u1ea1t v\u00e0o ch\u1ee9c v\u1ee5 T\u01b0 l\u1ecbnh T\u1ed1i Cao Qu\u00e2n \u0110\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng Minh Khu V\u1ef1c Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng (Supreme Allied Commander Pacific Ocean Areas) v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1eafc \u0111\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfm c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ea3o Gilbert, Marshall, Marianas theo h\u01b0\u1edbng nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ea3o Bonin. M\u1ed9t khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c ph\u00eda T\u00e2y Nam Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1eb7t d\u01b0\u1edbi quy\u1ec1n Th\u1ed1ng T\u01b0\u1edbng Douglas MacArthur t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Solomons, New Guinea, Bismarck Archipelago ti\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 h\u01b0\u1edbng Philippines.

M\u1ed9t kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o d\u1ecdc \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfn qu\u00e2n s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i t\u1ed1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u qu\u00e2n v\u00e0 v\u0169 kh\u00ed. Nh\u1eefng tr\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 cho th\u1ea5y qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Nh\u1eadt chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00ednh cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng. D\u00f9 thua qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Nh\u1eadt c\u0169ng g\u00e2y t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t l\u1edbn cho ph\u00eda \u0111\u1ed3ng minh.

Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201c\u1ebech nh\u1ea3y\u201d \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ra \u0111\u1eddi.

“\u1ebech Nh\u1ea3y” l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n v\u00e0 h\u1ea3i l\u1ef1c v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 t\u00e0u ng\u1ea7m nh\u1eb1m ng\u0103n ch\u1eadn m\u1ecdi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ebf, t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng cho \u0111\u1ea3o v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng cho qu\u00e2n Nh\u1eadt \u0111\u00f3ng tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ea3o r\u00fat lui. N\u00f3i t\u00f3m l\u1ea1i qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Nh\u1eadt \u0111\u00f3ng tr\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o b\u1ecb v\u00f4 hi\u1ec7u h\u00f3a b\u1eb1ng c\u00f4 l\u1eadp.

Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c “\u1ebech Nh\u1ea3y” cho ph\u00e9p qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 ti\u1ebfn nhanh v\u00e0o n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba Nh\u1eadt thay v\u00ec ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ea3o m\u1ed9t. C\u00e1c t\u01b0 l\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1i cao c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ch\u1ecdn nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea3o c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng. Nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea3o b\u1ecb t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0m b\u00e0n \u0111\u1ea1p t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o kh\u00e1c v\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Tokyo.

Trong l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e1c t\u01b0 l\u1ecbnh Nh\u1eadt kh\u00f4ng ti\u00ean \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0o s\u1ebd b\u1ecb t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0o bi b\u1ecf qua n\u00ean ph\u1ea3i t\u1eadp trung ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfn qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, Nh\u1eadt t\u1eadp trung m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 Rabaul th\u00ec M\u1ef9 l\u1ea1i b\u1ecf qua v\u00e0 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 nh\u1eb9 h\u01a1n b\u00ean c\u1ea1nh. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi Nh\u1eadt ph\u1ea3i b\u1ed1 tr\u00ed m\u1ed9t h\u00e0ng r\u00e0o ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m h\u01a1n nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i m\u1ecfng.

\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c “\u1ebech Nh\u1ea3y” n\u00e0y v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u1ebfu x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, c\u00e1c t\u1ef1 l\u1ecbnh M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ea3o, m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i \u0111\u1ea3o hay th\u1eadm ch\u00ed kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3o n\u00e0o m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f4 l\u1eadp h\u00f3a ch\u00fang.

T\u1eacP GI\u1ed0NG HITLER KH\u00d4NG S\u1ee2 CHI\u1ebeN TRANH B\u1eb0NG MI\u1ec6NG

Cu\u1ed9c h\u00e0nh qu\u00e2n t\u00e1i chi\u1ebfm v\u00f9ng Rhineland l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ea7n h\u1ecdc v\u00ec n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1edd T\u1eadp \u0111ang \u0111i g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 l\u1eadp l\u1ea1i n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1edd c\u1ee7a Hitler tr\u01b0\u1edbc Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 Hai.

S\u00e1ng ng\u00e0y 7 th\u00e1ng 3, 1936, Hitler \u0111\u01b0a m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea1o qu\u00e2n nh\u1ecf kho\u1ea3ng ba ng\u00e0n v\u00e0 v\u00e0i chi\u1ebfc phi c\u01a1 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u ti\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfm v\u00f9ng Rhineland l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 b\u1ea3o h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a phe \u0111\u1ed3ng minh, tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0 Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p. V\u1edbi h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y Hitler vi ph\u1ea1m c\u1ea3 hai hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc Versailles v\u00e0 Locarno. Qu\u00e2n \u0110\u1ee9c b\u1ecb m\u00e1y bay th\u00e1m th\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 v\u00e0i ti\u1ec3u \u0111o\u00e0n \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00f4ng g\u1ea5p nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f3ng b\u00ean kia bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi \u0110\u1ee9c Ph\u00e1p. Thay v\u00ec t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n \u0110\u1ee9c b\u1eb1ng b\u1ed9 binh hay kh\u00f4ng l\u1ef1c, Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecdn kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m g\u00ec ngo\u00e0i nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi t\u1ed1 c\u00e1o tr\u1ec5 tr\u00e0ng sau \u0111\u00f3.

T\u1eadp l\u00e0m gi\u1ed1ng h\u1ec7t nh\u01b0 Hitler b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch chi\u1ebfm m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ea3o, v\u00e0i \u0111\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ti\u1ebfn t\u1edbi qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 h\u00f3a v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfm Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng.
Hitler d\u00f9 sao c\u0169ng c\u00f3 l\u00fd do v\u00ec Rhineland v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c. Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd l\u00e0 c\u1ee7a TC. Vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng d\u00e1m ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00f2a \u00e1n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ee9ng minh ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n cho th\u1ea5y T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o v\u00e0 b\u00e3i \u0111\u00e1 tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ti\u00ean nh\u00e0 H\u00e1n n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i. Nh\u01b0ng gi\u1ed1ng Hitler khi t\u00e1i v\u0169 trang v\u00f9ng Rhineland, T\u1eadp b\u1eaft m\u1ea1ch \u0111\u00fang xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ch\u1ee7 h\u00f2a c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng th\u1ebf y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7, c\u1ea1nh tranh nh\u01b0ng thi\u1ebfu \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft trong v\u00f9ng.

PH\u1ea2N \u1ee8NG C\u1ee6A M\u1ef8

Ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng Mike Pompeo \u201cc\u00e1c \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u1ee7a TC \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i tr\u00ean h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p\u201d v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ee7a Ph\u1ee5 t\u00e1 Ngo\u1ea1i Tr\u01b0\u1edfng David Stilwell \u201cM\u1ef9 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng ch\u00fang t\u00f4i trung l\u1eadp v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i n\u00e0y\u201d trong th\u00e1ng 7, 2020 cho th\u1ea5y M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 trung l\u1eadp trong tranh ch\u1ea5p Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng.

\u0110i\u1ec3m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt l\u00e0 c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ebfn vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf trong gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c xung \u0111\u1ed9t.

Ra t\u00f2a \u00e1n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Trung C\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ed1i k\u1ef5. Nh\u1eefng k\u1ebb \u0103n c\u01b0\u1edbp kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd d\u00e1m c\u00f4ng khai \u0111\u1ed1i ch\u1ea5t. Cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay m\u1ecdi bi\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ea3o t\u1eeb Ho\u00e0ng Sa \u0111\u1ebfn Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa Trung C\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec1u c\u01b0\u1ee1ng chi\u1ebfm b\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 vi ph\u1ea1m Hi\u1ebfn Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng Li\u00ean Hi\u1ec7p Qu\u1ed1c, m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3n cam k\u1ebft quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia h\u1ed9i vi\u00ean tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7.

C\u00e1c ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a T\u00f2a \u00c1n Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf v\u1ec1 Lu\u1eadt Bi\u1ec3n do T\u00f2a Tr\u1ecdng T\u00e0i Th\u01b0\u1eddng Tr\u1ef1c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 sau v\u1ee5 ki\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Philippines cho th\u1ea5y TC c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n ph\u1ee7 quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft ngh\u1ecb c\u1ee7a H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng B\u1ea3o An LHQ nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n ph\u1ee7 quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a T\u00f2a \u00c1n Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf v\u1ec1 Lu\u1eadt Bi\u1ec3n (The International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea, ITLOS).

Nh\u01b0ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 Hitler, T\u1eadp s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ed3n ch\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u1eddi h\u00f9 d\u1ecda hay th\u1ec9nh tho\u1ea3ng b\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n v\u00e0i t\u00e0u chi\u1ebfn trong v\u00f9ng.

B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng l\u00e0 ngay sau tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng Mike Pompeo, TC \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u c\u01a1 v\u00e0 oanh t\u1ea1c c\u01a1 t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea3o Ph\u00fa L\u00e2m (Woody) nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c M\u1ef9.

T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh tin r\u1eb1ng trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch, s\u1ef1 x\u00e1o tr\u1ed9n \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra trong x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 m\u00f9a b\u1ea7u c\u1eed s\u1eafp \u0111\u1ebfn, M\u1ef9 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi TC. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3i ch\u1edd xem, tr\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea5u m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u.

H\u1eb3n nhi\u00ean T\u1eadp s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh y \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u00e0 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u1eeb b\u1ecf tham v\u1ecdng b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i d\u00f9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i Hitler hay \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i T\u1eadp.
Tuy nhi\u00ean, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i kh\u00e1c, TC s\u1ebd tan v\u1ee1 do c\u00e1c m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn t\u1eeb b\u00ean trong c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf.

C\u00e1c m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u00f3 t\u00ednh tri\u1ec7t ti\u00eau nhau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd s\u00e2u s\u1eafc h\u01a1n n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i.

S\u1ef1 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a giai c\u1ea5p t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ecf gi\u00fap k\u00e9o d\u00e0i m\u1ea1ng s\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a gi\u00fap h\u00f3a gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn \u0111\u1ed1i kh\u00e1ng b\u00ean trong. S\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean S\u00f4 cho th\u1ea5y t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 ch\u1ea1y \u0111ua v\u0169 trang, t\u1ea1o kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, bao v\u00e2y kinh t\u1ebf, l\u00e0m sa l\u1ea7y trong chi\u1ebfn tranh Afghanistan nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Li\u00ean S\u00f4 trong th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1980 v.v.. r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng. Nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00f3 gia t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c xung \u0111\u1ed9t thu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea1m vi b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 CS Li\u00ean S\u00f4.

Phong tr\u00e0o gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c Ottoman tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 sau Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn Th\u1ee9 Nh\u1ea5t d\u1eabn t\u1edbi s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c n\u00e0y v\u00e0 ra \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia m\u1edbi. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, Nh\u1eadt, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 li\u00ean minh c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u1ed1ng TC trong v\u00f9ng Nam v\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 CS t\u1ea1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c tan v\u1ee1 nhanh h\u01a1n. TC tan v\u1ee1 c\u00e0ng s\u1edbm bao nhi\u00eau c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf trong v\u00f9ng c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i b\u1ea5y nhi\u00eau.

CH\u1eccN L\u1ef0A C\u1ee4 TH\u1ec2 N\u00c0O C\u1ee6A M\u1ef8?

Hai nh\u00e0 b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn Zack Cooper v\u00e0 Bonnie S. Glaser trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u201cCh\u1ecdn L\u1ef1a N\u00e0o \u0110\u1eb7t Tr\u00ean B\u00e0n Trong Tranh Ch\u1ea5p Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng?\u201d (What Options are On the Table in the South China Sea?) \u0111\u0103ng tr\u00ean trang World Popitics Review h\u00f4m 22 th\u00e1ng 7, 2020, c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00f3 g\u1ed3m (1) tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t kinh t\u1ebf, (2) tu\u1ea7n tra \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ho\u1eb7c tr\u1ee5c xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c t\u00e0u \u0111\u00e1nh c\u00e1 ho\u1eb7c t\u00e0u th\u0103m d\u00f2 d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a TC ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1edf h\u1eefu c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, (3) h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp h\u01a1n cho c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c, (4) gi\u00fap c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c trong khu v\u1ef1c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ri\u00eang \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 \u00e9p bu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a TC, (5) \u0111\u01b0a ra tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 chung v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng Mike Pompeo ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 cho c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p do Zack Cooper v\u00e0 Bonnie S. Glaser \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p t\u00edch c\u1ef1c nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i thi h\u00e0nh. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng, nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 d\u00f9 m\u1ea1nh mi\u1ec7ng bao nhi\u00eau c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi h\u00f9 d\u1ecda. T\u1eadp, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 Hitler tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, kh\u00f4ng s\u1ee3 ai h\u00f9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ri\u00eang l\u1ebb nh\u01b0 trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ti\u1ec1n c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng k\u1ef9 ngh\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 18 m\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nhau trong m\u1ecdi l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c. Trong m\u1ecdi xung \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y nay, kh\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0o d\u00f9 nh\u1ecf hay l\u1edbn l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mi\u1ec5n tr\u1eeb h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 hay ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i. M\u1ecdi tranh ch\u1ea5p c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u nhau v\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 m\u00e0 m\u1ecdi l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 chi\u1ebfn tranh. X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, ph\u1ee5c h\u01b0ng n\u1ed9i l\u1ef1c d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c v\u00e0 v\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng m\u1ecdi bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o qu\u1ed1c gia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u1ea7n Trung \u0110\u1ea1o<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trong bu\u1ed5i h\u1ecdp b\u00e1o t\u1ea1i Rose Garden nh\u00e2n chuy\u1ebfn vi\u1ebfng th\u0103m Hoa K\u1ef3 ng\u00e0y 25 th\u00e1ng 9, 2015, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5123,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tieu-luan-chinh-tri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5122"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5122\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5125,"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5122\/revisions\/5125"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5123"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.trantrungdao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}